March 19th, 2007 by lucas
The french presidential election (in april/may 2007) will use plurality voting with two rounds (voters will choose 1 amongst 11 or 12 candidates during the first round. The two candidates with the most votes will be qualified for the second round).
The latest polls clearly show how this election method fails to satisfy the Condorcet criterion. Using the second round results from this poll (only considering the 3 main candidates, since the other don’t have any chance to win the presidential election), we get this:
So Francois Bayrou is the Condorcet winner, and should win the election. However, the first round results, according to the same poll, could be:
- Sarkozy 31%
- Royal 24%
- Bayrou 22%
- Le Pen 12%
Since only the two first candidates are qualified to second round, Bayrou wouldn’t be elected. It will be interesting to see how those scores evolves until the first round (April 22nd).