Condorcet method and the french presidential election

March 19th, 2007 by lucas

The french presidential election (in april/may 2007) will use plurality voting with two rounds (voters will choose 1 amongst 11 or 12 candidates during the first round. The two candidates with the most votes will be qualified for the second round).

The latest polls clearly show how this election method fails to satisfy the Condorcet criterion. Using the second round results from this poll (only considering the 3 main candidates, since the other don’t have any chance to win the presidential election), we get this:

2007 elect results

So Francois Bayrou is the Condorcet winner, and should win the election. However, the first round results, according to the same poll, could be:

  1. Sarkozy 31%
  2. Royal 24%
  3. Bayrou 22%
  4. Le Pen 12%

Since only the two first candidates are qualified to second round, Bayrou wouldn’t be elected. It will be interesting to see how those scores evolves until the first round (April 22nd).

2 Responses to “Condorcet method and the french presidential election”

  1. glandium wrote on 03/19/07 at 11:42 am :

    And what to say about Chirac in 2002…

  2. Philippe wrote on 03/19/07 at 4:11 pm :

    I’m not sure the condorcet method is the best in such a type of election.

    Because in my opinion, this method failed when the opinion is mostly bipolarized (what we call “gauche/droite” –left/right or democrats/republicans–) like in the french opinion and that there is a majority of candidates of one part.

    Indeed, I think it will always be one candidate of the most representated pole who will won.

    And in your exemple, there is only one candidate of the “gauche” for mostly 3 for the “droite”.

    And the condorcet method is a type of election which elect the “compromise” candidate and not the preferred candidate by the majority. The question is which choice is the best…